It is difficult to predict how many people who currently drive or catch public transport along the U1 route would in future cycle along the Radbahn. But if you talk to people in the city, many frequently emphasize the fact that they would like to commute by bike, but feel that it’s simply too dangerous.

Our partner InnoZ investigated this topic using methods that provide a very interesting foundation for future investigations. However given that their study only involved 20 participants tracking about 2,000 trips, the findings are of course not reliable or representative of Berlin’s population. Furthermore, the data was only gathered over a short period of time at the start of this year (January to April 2017).

Car > Bicycle Transfer Potential

In the Radbahn catchment area, people who frequently ride their bikes (more than 50% of all trips) often use cars for trips along the Radbahn route. Such trips have an average distance of 6.44 km and normally, keen cyclists would complete such distances by bike. However the greatest opportunities lie with people who rarely cycle. A covered path that is separated from road traffic could provide a catalyst for a shift towards cycling.

Subway > Bicycle Transfer Potential

The subway lines are already used in combination with other means of transportation. Random sampling has shown that is incredibly common for people to ride their bikes to a subway station and continue their journey with public transport. If the Radbahn were to be built, bike users would potentially stay on their bikes and continue cycling for the rest of their trip.

Transfer Potential in Wet Weather

Berlin’s subways and roads are particularly busy when it rains. Very few people brave wet weather on their bikes. This map shows the amount of bicycle journeys completed in the rain (above) and when it is not raining (below). This is where we expect to see the greatest transfer potential, because the Radbahn will enable cyclists to stay dry.